Thursday made it four Republican days in a row, by the smallest margin of the four.
Harris County had 88,981 voters cast ballots in person on Thursday, October 29, the eleventh day of early voting, up 13 percent from Wednesday. Republicans out-voted Democrats among scored voters by 302, down from 397 on Wednesday and 1,552 on Tuesday. Counting the mail ballots scored so far, 937,524 Harris County voters are in the series through eleven days, with one more day of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 11 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day eleven broke down like this:
- Democrats: 17,183
- Republicans: 17,485
- Delta: R +302
The in-person line now reads D +10,380, D +4,334, D +1,966, R +47, D +719, D +4,245, D +1,552, R +655, R +1,552, R +397, R +302. Thursday is the fifth Republican day of the series and the fourth in a row, Monday through Thursday, but each of the last three has been narrower than the one before: R +1,552, R +397, now R +302. Independents were again the biggest group: 41,464 day-eleven voters carry no party lean in our file, 47 percent of everyone who showed up. Another 12,849 are not in our voter file or have no score.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): a dead heat on the day.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): R +371 on the day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +934.
Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge: Precinct 1 went D +3,991 and Precinct 3 went R +3,961.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
In House District 127 (Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman), where incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D), 5,002 voters cast ballots in person on day eleven: Republicans 1,444, Democrats 725, independents and swing 2,309. That is R +719 on the day, compared with HD-126 (R +656) and HD-128 (R +630).
The series in HD-127, days 1-11. 55,946 HD-127 voters so far, in person and by mail: Republicans 19,694, Democrats 11,875, independents and swing 19,988, R +7,819 before independents. Republicans have won every in-person day (R +764, R +880, R +988, R +942, R +964, R +278, R +135, R +745, R +705, R +688, R +719); the scored mail vote is a wash at R +11. With independents projected in, HD-127 sits at R +8,245; its independents split 49 percent Democratic, closer to even than the county.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 1,504 voted on day eleven, R +524
- Humble (including Atascocita): 3,688 voted, D +84
Kingwood again ran Republican among scored voters, while Humble was close to even on the day but still leans Democratic for the series, and Humble turns out about twice as many voters. Series to date: Kingwood R +6,843, Humble D +2,483.
The Series So Far: Days 1-11
- Total voters: 937,524 (909,975 in person, 27,549 by mail scored)
- Democrats: 252,753
- Republicans: 226,234
- Delta: D +26,519 (in person D +20,243, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +4,987
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +1,035
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +12,011
- HD-127: R +7,819
- Kingwood: R +6,843
- Humble: D +2,483
In-person turnout by day: 104,659, 99,910, 93,414, 86,328, 95,108, 67,242, 40,865, 79,474, 75,247, 78,747, 88,981. The Clerk’s mail roster now has 41,681 accepted ballots; only the 27,549 received through October 20 are scored and counted here. Roster counts for earlier days differ from our earlier posts by a handful of voters because the Clerk reconciles its rosters after posting.
Where Will Independents Go?
41,464 day-eleven voters are scored as independents or swing voters. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays R +302.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct across all 11 days, which gives D +5,698.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 328,180 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. Independents missing age or sex are scored on precinct and method. That gives D +10,414, with independents breaking 26,090 Democratic to 15,374 Republican (63 percent).
By race, under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 D +2,227, Precinct 4 D +1,869, SD-4 (Harris portion) R +1,000, HD-127 R +644, Kingwood R +755, Humble D +697.
The series with independents, days 1-11. Countywide, even split D +26,519, by precinct D +73,668, model D +101,176. Independents so far break 61 percent Democratic under the model. Commissioner Precinct 2 stands at D +21,189 and Precinct 4 at D +15,584; Republicans hold SD-4 (Harris portion) at R +14,174, HD-127 at R +8,245 and Precinct 3 at R +56,594. Kingwood R +9,294, Humble D +7,223.
The full headcount. Put every scored voter in one column or the other, independents included: day eleven comes out 43,273 Democratic to 32,859 Republican, D +10,414 on 88,981 voters. For the whole series, 466,295 Democratic to 365,119 Republican, D +101,176 on 937,524 voters. The 106,110 voters not in our file or without a score are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like the scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Democrats lead the series by D +26,519 among scored voters and by D +101,176 with independents projected in. Thursday’s R +302 barely moved that lead, and independents again broke about 63 percent Democratic, so the day projects to D +10,414 under the model.
More than 352,000 early voters so far are scored as independents or swing voters, 47 percent of day eleven’s turnout. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 12
- Does Friday, the last and usually biggest day of early voting, end the Republican run?
- Precinct 2 was a dead heat on Thursday. Which way does it close?
- Do independents keep breaking Democratic at about 60 percent?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day eleven only in-person votes?
Day eleven counts the 88,981 voters who voted in person on Thursday, October 29. Mail ballots accepted since October 20 are not yet scored, so the mail total in the series figures is unchanged.
How are independents projected?
Three ways. An even split leaves the margin unchanged. By precinct gives each independent the Democrat-to-Republican ratio of scored voters in their own precinct. The model predicts each independent from precinct lean, age, sex and vote method, trained on scored partisans in the Talking Purple voter file. All three are projections, not vote counts.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Related reading on Talking Purple
- Game 12: Harris County early voting day twelve
- Game 10: Harris County early voting day ten
- Game 9: Harris County early voting day nine
- Game 8: Harris County early voting day eight
- Game 7: Harris County early voting day seven
- Game 6: Harris County early voting day six
- Game 5: Harris County early voting day five
- Game 4: Harris County early voting day four
- Game 3: Harris County early voting day three
- Game 2: Harris County early voting day two
- Game 1: Harris County early voting day one
- Day one early voting in Texas: the 10 biggest counties
- Harris County voter data
- Political text messaging in Harris County
- Political voter outreach services
