Game 6 was the Democrats’ best day since opening day.
Harris County had 67,242 voters cast ballots in person on Saturday, October 24, the first weekend day of early voting. Saturday turnout runs lighter than a weekday (95,108 voted Friday), but the crowd that came leaned harder Democratic than any day since Monday. Counting the mail ballots scored so far, 574,210 Harris County voters are in the series through six days, with six more days of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 6 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day six broke down like this:
- Democrats: 17,245
- Republicans: 13,000
- Delta: D +4,245
The in-person line now reads D +10,380, D +4,334, D +1,966, R +47, D +719, D +4,245. After a week of narrowing, Saturday was a clear Democratic day, and it came on the smallest turnout of the series. Independents were again the biggest group: 28,071 day-six voters carry no party lean in our file, 42 percent of everyone who showed up, a new high for the series. Another 8,926 are not in our voter file at all.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): D +914 on the day.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): D +686 on the day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +365.
Both commissioner races on the ballot went Democratic on Saturday after a week of coin flips. Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge: Precinct 1 went D +4,177 and Precinct 3 went R +1,535.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
In House District 127 (Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman), where incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D), 3,813 voters cast ballots in person on day six: Republicans 1,076, Democrats 798, independents and swing 1,541. That is R +278 on the day, in line with HD-126 (R +266) and HD-128 (R +351).
The series in HD-127, days 1-6. 35,341 HD-127 voters so far, in person and by mail: Republicans 13,164, Democrats 8,337, independents and swing 11,380, R +4,827 before independents. Republicans have won all six days (R +764, R +880, R +988, R +942, R +964, R +278), though Saturday’s R +278 was the narrowest yet and the mail vote is a wash at R +11. With independents projected in, HD-127 sits at R +4,945; its independents split 49 percent Democratic, closer to even than the county.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 1,243 voted on day six, R +343
- Humble (including Atascocita): 2,753 voted, D +255
Six days, same shape: Kingwood runs about three to one Republican among scored voters, Humble leans Democratic by a couple hundred a day, and Humble turns out twice as many voters. Series to date: Kingwood R +4,448, Humble D +2,021.
The Series So Far: Days 1-5
- Total voters: 574,210 (546,661 in person, 27,549 by mail scored)
- Democrats: 175,207
- Republicans: 147,334
- Delta: D +27,873 (in person D +21,597, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +4,516
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +2,983
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +7,803
- HD-127: R +4,827
- Kingwood: R +4,448
- Humble: D +2,021
In-person turnout by day: 104,659, 99,910, 93,414, 86,328, 95,108, 67,242. The Clerk’s mail roster has grown to 34,929; the ballots received since October 20 are not yet scored and are not in these totals.
Where Will Independents Go?
28,071 day-six voters are scored as independents or swing voters. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays D +4,245.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct across all six days, which gives D +8,676.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 175,242 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. Day six’s file carried party and birth year, so its independents are scored on precinct, age and method. That gives D +12,676, with independents breaking 18,251 Democratic to 9,820 Republican (65 percent).
By race, under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 D +2,622, Precinct 4 D +2,708, SD-4 (Harris portion) R +317, HD-127 R +149, Kingwood R +483, Humble D +726.
The series with independents, days 1-6. Countywide, even split D +27,873, by precinct D +57,937, model D +72,825. Independents so far break 62 percent Democratic under the model. The daily share slipped from 64 percent on days one through three to 57 percent on Thursday and Friday, then jumped to 65 percent on Saturday. Commissioner Precinct 2 stands at D +14,468 and Precinct 4 at D +11,764; Republicans hold SD-4 (Harris portion) at R +8,979, HD-127 at R +4,945 and Precinct 3 at R +32,012. Kingwood R +5,809, Humble D +4,775.
The full headcount. Put every scored voter in one column or the other, independents included: day six comes out 35,496 Democratic to 22,820 Republican, D +12,676 on 67,242 voters. For the whole series, 294,807 Democratic to 221,982 Republican, D +72,825 on 574,210 voters. The 57,421 voters not in our file are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like the scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Democrats lead the series by D +27,873 among scored voters and by D +72,825 with independents projected in. The week ended with the margin narrowing to nothing on Thursday; the weekend opened with Democrats winning Saturday by more than 4,000 among scored voters and independents in Democratic precincts turning out. One Saturday is one Saturday, and it was the lightest day of the series. Sunday and the final five weekdays will show whether the weekend crowd was a shift or a blip.
More than 194,000 early voters so far are scored as independents or swing voters, 42 percent of Saturday’s turnout. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 7
- Does Sunday look like Saturday, or does the weekday pattern return Monday?
- Do the Precinct 2 and 4 commissioner races hold their Saturday Democratic edge?
- Does the independent share stay above 40 percent, and which way do they lean?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day six only in-person votes?
Day six counts the 67,242 voters who voted in person on Saturday, October 24. Mail ballots received since October 20 are not yet scored, so the mail total in the series figures is unchanged.
How are independents projected?
Three ways. An even split leaves the margin unchanged. By precinct gives each independent the Democrat-to-Republican ratio of scored voters in their own precinct. The model predicts each independent from precinct lean, age, sex and vote method, trained on scored partisans in the Talking Purple voter file. All three are projections, not vote counts.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30, including this weekend. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Related reading on Talking Purple
- Game 5: Harris County early voting day five
- Game 4: Harris County early voting day four
- Game 3: Harris County early voting day three
- Game 2: Harris County early voting day two
- Day one early voting in Texas: the 10 biggest counties
- Harris County voter data
- Political text messaging in Harris County
- Political voter outreach services
