Game 5 went to the Democrats, by a run.
Harris County had 95,108 voters cast ballots in person on Friday, October 23, the fifth day of early voting and the first day turnout went up instead of down (86,328 on Thursday). Counting the mail ballots scored so far, 506,968 Harris County voters are in the series through five days, with seven more days of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 5 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day five broke down like this:
- Democrats: 24,411
- Republicans: 23,692
- Delta: D +719
After four days of narrowing and one Republican day, the Democrats took Friday back, narrowly. The in-person line now reads D +10,380, D +4,334, D +1,966, R +47, D +719. Independents were the biggest group on the day: 36,595 day-five voters carry no party lean in our file, 38 percent of everyone who showed up, the highest share of the series. Another 10,410 are not in our voter file at all.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): D +60 on the day.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): R +73 on the day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +1,459.
Both commissioner races on the ballot were decided by fewer than 75 scored votes on Friday; they are the closest contests in the county day after day. Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge: Precinct 1 went D +6,005 and Precinct 3 went R +5,274.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
In House District 127 (Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman), where incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D), 5,932 voters cast ballots in person on day five: Republicans 2,139, Democrats 1,175, independents and swing 2,176. That is R +964 on the day, in line with HD-126 (R +835) and HD-128 (R +1,064).
The series in HD-127, days 1-5. 31,528 HD-127 voters so far, in person and by mail: Republicans 12,088, Democrats 7,539, independents and swing 9,839, R +4,549 before independents. Republicans have won all five days (R +764, R +880, R +988, R +942, R +964) and the mail vote is a wash at R +11. With independents projected in, HD-127 sits at R +4,838; its independents split 49 percent Democratic, closer to even than the county.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 1,990 voted on day five, R +781
- Humble (including Atascocita): 4,025 voted, D +142
Five days, same shape: Kingwood runs about four to one Republican among scored voters, Humble leans Democratic by a hundred or two a day, and Humble turns out twice as many voters. Series to date: Kingwood R +4,105, Humble D +1,766.
The Series So Far: Days 1-5
- Total voters: 506,968 (479,419 in person, 27,549 by mail scored)
- Democrats: 157,962
- Republicans: 134,334
- Delta: D +23,628 (in person D +17,352, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +3,602
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +2,297
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +7,438
- HD-127: R +4,549
- Kingwood: R +4,105
- Humble: D +1,766
In-person turnout by day: 104,659, 99,910, 93,414, 86,328, 95,108. The Clerk’s mail roster has grown to 32,713; the ballots received since October 20 are not yet scored and are not in these totals.
Where Will Independents Go?
36,595 day-five voters are scored as independents or swing voters. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays D +719.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct across all five days, which gives D +5,825.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 175,242 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. Day five’s file carried party only, so its independents are scored on precinct and method. That gives D +5,334, with independents breaking 20,605 Democratic to 15,990 Republican (56 percent).
By race, under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 D +1,045, Precinct 4 D +661, SD-4 (Harris portion) R +2,004, HD-127 R +1,208, Kingwood R +1,106, Humble D +498.
The series with independents, days 1-5. Countywide, even split D +23,628, by precinct D +48,696, model D +59,413. Independents so far break 61 percent Democratic under the model, and the daily share has slipped from 63 and 64 percent on days one through three to 57 and 56 percent on days four and five. Commissioner Precinct 2 stands at D +11,644 and Precinct 4 at D +8,842; Republicans hold SD-4 (Harris portion) at R +8,762, HD-127 at R +4,838 and Precinct 3 at R +30,920. Kingwood R +5,328, Humble D +4,025.
The full headcount. Put every scored voter in one column or the other, independents included: day five comes out 45,016 Democratic to 39,682 Republican, D +5,334 on 95,108 voters. For the whole series, 258,943 Democratic to 199,530 Republican, D +59,413 on 506,968 voters. The 48,495 voters not in our file are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like the scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Democrats lead the series by D +23,628 among scored voters and by D +59,413 with independents projected in, and Friday stopped the slide: a 719-vote Democratic day after a 47-vote Republican one. But the first week ended far closer than it began. Independents are a growing share of each day’s turnout, they are breaking less Democratic than they did on Monday, and the two commissioner races on the ballot are being decided by double digits each day.
The weekend is the test. Saturday and Sunday early voting draws a different crowd, and more than 166,000 early voters so far are scored as independents or swing voters. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 6
- Does weekend turnout change the mix, and which side benefits?
- Do the Precinct 2 and 4 commissioner races stay inside 100 votes a day?
- Does the independent share keep climbing past 38 percent?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day five only in-person votes?
Day five counts the 95,108 voters who voted in person on October 23. Mail ballots received since October 20 are not yet scored, so the mail total in the series figures is unchanged.
How are independents projected?
Three ways. An even split leaves the margin unchanged. By precinct gives each independent the Democrat-to-Republican ratio of scored voters in their own precinct. The model predicts each independent from precinct lean, age, sex and vote method, trained on scored partisans in the Talking Purple voter file. All three are projections, not vote counts.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30, including this weekend. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
