Four games in, and the series has its first Republican win.
Harris County had 86,328 voters cast ballots in person on Thursday, October 22, the fourth day of early voting. That is the lowest daily count so far, down from 93,414 on day three. After four days, 411,858 Harris County voters have already cast a ballot, with eight more days of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 4 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day four broke down like this:
- Democrats: 23,336
- Republicans: 23,383
- Delta: R +47
That is the first day of the series where Republicans outnumbered Democrats among in-person voters. The Democratic in-person lead went from D +10,380 on day one to D +4,334 on day two to D +1,966 on day three, and on day four it disappeared. The margin is 47 votes, which is a tie for practical purposes, but the direction has been the same every single day.
Another 30,730 day-four voters are scored as independents or swing voters, and 8,879 are not in our voter file at all, most of them new registrations.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): R +163 on the day, the first Republican day in this race.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): R +546 on the day, also the first Republican day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +1,421.
Both commissioner races on the ballot were within 200 votes on day three. On day four both flipped. Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge, and the split between them stayed wide: Precinct 1 went D +5,936 and Precinct 3 went R +5,272.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
New to the series this game: a look at House District 127, which covers Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman. Incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D) on November 3.
On day four, 5,489 HD-127 voters cast ballots in person: Republicans 2,081, Democrats 1,139, independents and swing voters 1,869. That is R +942 on the day, a wider Republican edge than the county as a whole and in line with its neighbors, HD-126 (R +895) and HD-128 (R +1,011).
Independents are the swing block here too: nearly one in three HD-127 day-four voters carries no party lean in our file.
The series in HD-127, days 1-4. 25,596 HD-127 voters have cast a ballot so far, in person and by mail: Republicans 9,949, Democrats 6,364, independents and swing 7,663. That is R +3,585 before independents. Republicans have won every day: R +764, R +880, R +988, R +942, and the mail vote is a wash at R +11. With independents projected in by the model, HD-127 sits at R +3,610; HD-127 independents split 50 percent Democratic, closer to even than the county as a whole.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 1,914 voted on day four, R +787
- Humble (including Atascocita): 3,669 voted, D +239
Same pattern as the first three days: Kingwood runs about four to one Republican among scored voters, Humble leans Democratic by a couple hundred votes a day, and Humble turns out roughly twice as many voters.
The Series So Far: Days 1-4
- Total voters: 411,858 (384,311 in person, 27,547 by mail)
- Democrats: 133,549
- Republicans: 110,642
- Delta: D +22,907 (in person D +16,631, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +3,540
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +2,368
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +5,979
- Kingwood: R +3,324
- Humble: D +1,624
Daily in-person turnout has fallen each day: 104,659, then 99,910, then 93,414, then 86,328. The Democratic cushion is now almost entirely the mail vote and day one.
Where Will Independents Go?
30,730 day-four voters are scored as independents or swing voters, more than a third of the day. They are the bullpen that decides close races. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays R +47.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct across all four days, which gives D +4,930.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 175,242 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. Day four’s file carried party only, so its independents are scored on precinct and method. That gives D +4,439, with independents breaking 17,608 Democratic to 13,122 Republican (57 percent).
Day four’s independents lean less Democratic than the first three days’ (57 percent versus 63 to 64 percent each day before), which is why a dead heat among partisans becomes only a modest Democratic edge once they are counted.
By race, under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 moves from R +163 to D +858. Commissioner Precinct 4 moves from R +546 to D +93. SD-4 (Harris portion) stays Republican at R +1,859, and HD-127 at R +1,131. Kingwood R +1,052, Humble D +579.
The series with independents, days 1-4. Scoring every voter from all four days plus the mail ballots with the same model: countywide, even split D +22,909, by precinct D +43,874, model D +54,193. Independents so far break 62 percent Democratic under the model. Commissioner Precinct 2 stands at D +10,609 and Precinct 4 at D +8,161; Republicans hold SD-4 (Harris portion) at R +6,750, HD-127 at R +3,610 and Precinct 3 at R +23,251. Kingwood is R +4,212 and Humble D +3,553.
One model now runs the whole series, so these figures replace the day-by-day projections in the Game 2 and Game 3 posts; they land within a few thousand votes of those earlier runs and tell the same story.
The full headcount. Put every scored voter in one column or the other, independents included, and day four comes out 40,944 Democratic to 36,505 Republican, D +4,439 on 86,328 voters. For the whole series, 213,984 Democratic to 159,791 Republican, D +54,193 on 411,860 voters. The 38,085 voters not in our file are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like the scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Democrats still lead the series, and the lead is real: more than 22,000 votes. But the trend line is the story. Every in-person day has been closer than the one before, and day four tipped to the Republicans among scored voters. Add the independents back in by precinct and day four lands around D +4,439, still the narrowest day of the series by a wide margin. The two commissioner races on the ballot both flipped on the day, and the Republican advantage in SD-4 and HD-127 held steady.
Four days do not decide an election. Turnout by group changes from day to day, the weekend is coming, and more than 125,000 early voters so far are scored as independents or swing voters. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 5
- Does Friday hold the Republican in-person edge, or was day four the bottom of the Democratic slide?
- Do the Precinct 2 and 4 commissioner races stay flipped?
- Does daily turnout keep falling, or does the weekend bring a new wave?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day four only in-person votes?
Day four counts the 86,328 voters who voted in person on October 22. Mail ballots received that day are not yet scored, so the mail total in the series figures is unchanged from the Game 3 post.
What is House District 127 and why is it in this post?
HD-127 is the Texas House seat covering Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman. Incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D) on November 3. It is the home district for many of our readers, so we have added it to the daily box score, with the full series back to day one.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
