Game 1 went to the Democrats, and it wasn’t close. In Game 2, Republicans answered.
Harris County had 99,910 voters cast ballots in person on Tuesday, October 20, the second day of early voting. That’s a little below day one’s 104,659, but still a huge midterm crowd. Another 2,755 mail ballots arrived. After two days, 232,118 Harris County voters have already cast a ballot, with 10 more days of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 2 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day two broke down like this:
- Democrats: 32,772
- Republicans: 28,150
- Delta: D +4,622
The real story is the in-person vote. On day one, Democrats led in-person voting by 10,380. On day two, that lead fell to 4,334. Republicans cut the in-person gap by nearly 60% in one day.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): Democrats led day two by just 633 votes, after leading by more than 2,800 on day one and the early mail.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): Democrats led day two by only 417.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D): In the Harris County part of the district, Republicans led day two R +1,645.
Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 2,121 voted on day two, R +830
- Humble (including Atascocita): 4,143 voted, D +363
Who Came to the Plate
- Voters 65 and older swung hard toward Republicans: R +2,941 on day two, after being nearly even on day one.
- Men leaned Republican on day two, R +1,278.
- Women still leaned Democratic, D +5,479.
- Voters under 45 leaned Democratic, but most of the youngest voters are scored as independents.
The Series So Far: Days 1 and 2
- Total voters: 232,118
- Democrats: 82,898
- Republicans: 61,908
- Delta: D +20,990 (in person D +14,714, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +3,534
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +2,722
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +2,957
- Kingwood: R +1,764
- Humble: D +1,158
Where Will Independents Go?
More than 64,000 Harris County early voters so far are scored as independents. They are the bullpen that could decide close races. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays D +20,990.
- By precinct: each independent is split by the lean of their own precinct, which gives D +34,070.
- Model: each independent is predicted from their precinct, age, sex and how they voted, trained on scored Democrats and Republicans. That gives D +40,624.
Under every method, Republicans keep the lead in the Harris County part of SD-4 (about R +3,000) and in Commissioner Precinct 3, where independents split almost exactly evenly. In the Precinct 2 and 4 commissioner races, independents widen the Democratic lead. Young independents lean Democratic in the model; independents 65 and older split evenly.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Democrats still lead the series, and the mail vote gives them a cushion. But day two showed the series isn’t a sweep. Republicans cut the in-person gap sharply, older voters shifted toward Republicans, and the two commissioner races on the ballot tightened to a few hundred votes on the day.
Two days don’t make a trend. Turnout by group can change from day to day, and more than 64,000 early voters so far are scored as independents. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 3
- Does the Republican in-person surge hold, or was day two a one-day swing?
- Do the Precinct 2 and 4 commissioner races keep tightening?
- Does Harris County stay near 100,000 in-person voters a day?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting and mail rosters is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why are day one and day two counted differently for mail?
Day one includes every mail ballot received since September. Day two includes only mail ballots received on October 20. That is why the in-person numbers are the fairest day-to-day comparison.
Which Harris County races are these numbers about?
County Judge countywide, Commissioner Precincts 2 and 4, and the Harris County portion of Senate District 4. Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race in 2026.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
