Friday ended early voting with the biggest crowd of the series and broke a four-day Republican run.
Harris County had 126,397 voters cast ballots in person on Friday, October 30, the twelfth and final day of early voting, the largest single day of the series and 42 percent more than Thursday. Democrats edged Republicans among scored voters by 188, the first Democratic day since Sunday. Counting the mail ballots scored so far, 1,063,921 Harris County voters are in the series through all twelve days, with Election Day still to play.
The Game 12 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day twelve broke down like this:
- Democrats: 21,570
- Republicans: 21,382
- Delta: D +188
The final in-person line reads D +10,380, D +4,334, D +1,966, R +47, D +719, D +4,245, D +1,552, R +655, R +1,552, R +397, R +302, D +188. Friday’s D +188 closed early voting on a Democratic day after four straight Republican ones, on the heaviest turnout of the twelve days. Independents were again the biggest group: 63,760 day-twelve voters carry no party lean in our file, 50 percent of everyone who showed up. Another 19,685 are not in our voter file or have no score.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): D +180 on the day.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): R +42 on the day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +1,218.
Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge: Precinct 1 went D +5,091 and Precinct 3 went R +5,043.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
In House District 127 (Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman), where incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D), 7,245 voters cast ballots in person on day twelve: Republicans 1,854, Democrats 895, independents and swing 3,642. That is R +959 on the day, compared with HD-126 (R +768) and HD-128 (R +807).
The series in HD-127, days 1-12. 63,191 HD-127 voters so far, in person and by mail: Republicans 21,548, Democrats 12,770, independents and swing 23,630, R +8,778 before independents. Republicans have won every in-person day (R +764, R +880, R +988, R +942, R +964, R +278, R +135, R +745, R +705, R +688, R +719, R +959); the scored mail vote is a wash at R +11. With independents projected in, HD-127 sits at R +9,562; its independents split 48 percent Democratic, closer to even than the county.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 2,297 voted on day twelve, R +674
- Humble (including Atascocita): 5,181 voted, D +33
Kingwood again ran Republican among scored voters, while Humble was close to even on the day but still leans Democratic for the series, and Humble turns out about twice as many voters. Series to date: Kingwood R +7,517, Humble D +2,516.
The Series So Far: Days 1-12
- Total voters: 1,063,921 (1,036,372 in person, 27,549 by mail scored)
- Democrats: 274,323
- Republicans: 247,616
- Delta: D +26,707 (in person D +20,431, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +5,167
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +993
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +13,229
- HD-127: R +8,778
- Kingwood: R +7,517
- Humble: D +2,516
In-person turnout by day: 104,659, 99,910, 93,414, 86,328, 95,108, 67,242, 40,865, 79,474, 75,247, 78,747, 88,981, 126,397. The Clerk’s mail roster now has 41,681 accepted ballots; only the 27,549 received through October 20 are scored and counted here. Roster counts for earlier days differ from our earlier posts by a handful of voters because the Clerk reconciles its rosters after posting.
Where Will Independents Go?
63,760 day-twelve voters are scored as independents or swing voters. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays D +188.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct across all 12 days, which gives D +8,527.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 369,584 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. Independents missing age or sex are scored on precinct and method. That gives D +15,858, with independents breaking 39,715 Democratic to 24,045 Republican (62 percent).
By race, under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 D +3,477, Precinct 4 D +3,070, SD-4 (Harris portion) R +1,455, HD-127 R +957, Kingwood R +1,120, Humble D +966.
The series with independents, days 1-12. Countywide, even split D +26,707, by precinct D +80,676, model D +111,906. Independents so far break 60 percent Democratic under the model. Commissioner Precinct 2 stands at D +23,668 and Precinct 4 at D +17,528; Republicans hold SD-4 (Harris portion) at R +16,019, HD-127 at R +9,562 and Precinct 3 at R +65,109. Kingwood R +10,506, Humble D +7,915.
The full headcount. Put every scored voter in one column or the other, independents included: day twelve comes out 61,285 Democratic to 45,427 Republican, D +15,858 on 126,397 voters. For the whole series, 525,016 Democratic to 413,110 Republican, D +111,906 on 1,063,921 voters. The 125,795 voters not in our file or without a score are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like the scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Early voting closes with Democrats ahead by D +26,707 among scored voters and by D +111,906 with independents projected in. Friday’s crowd was half independents, and they broke about 62 percent Democratic under the model, so the day projects to D +15,858.
More than 416,000 early voters so far are scored as independents or swing voters, 50 percent of day twelve’s turnout. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch on Election Day
- Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Does the Election Day crowd look like the last week of early voting, which leaned Republican, or like the first week?
- Precinct 2 and Precinct 4 both closed early voting within a few hundred votes on the day. Which way do they go on Election Day?
- Republicans need a strong Election Day to overcome the early-vote edge Democrats built with independents.
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day twelve only in-person votes?
Day twelve counts the 126,397 voters who voted in person on Friday, October 30. Mail ballots accepted since October 20 are not yet scored, so the mail total in the series figures is unchanged.
How are independents projected?
Three ways. An even split leaves the margin unchanged. By precinct gives each independent the Democrat-to-Republican ratio of scored voters in their own precinct. The model predicts each independent from precinct lean, age, sex and vote method, trained on scored partisans in the Talking Purple voter file. All three are projections, not vote counts.
When does early voting end?
Early voting ended Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Related reading on Talking Purple
- Harris County early voting 2026 wrap-up: all 12 games
- Game 11: Harris County early voting day eleven
- Game 10: Harris County early voting day ten
- Game 9: Harris County early voting day nine
- Game 8: Harris County early voting day eight
- Game 7: Harris County early voting day seven
- Game 6: Harris County early voting day six
- Game 5: Harris County early voting day five
- Game 4: Harris County early voting day four
- Game 3: Harris County early voting day three
- Game 2: Harris County early voting day two
- Game 1: Harris County early voting day one
- Day one early voting in Texas: the 10 biggest counties
- Harris County voter data
- Political text messaging in Harris County
- Political voter outreach services
