Early voting in Harris County is over. Twelve days, Monday, October 19 through Friday, October 30, put 1,036,372 voters through the polls in person, and the Clerk’s mail roster shows 44,661 mail ballots accepted. This is the Talking Purple wrap-up of all twelve games: who showed up by party score, how it moved day to day, and where every race on the ballot stands going into Election Day, Tuesday, November 3.
The bottom line: among scored voters, Democrats lead the Harris County early vote by D +26,707. The biggest group is neither party, though. Independents and swing voters number 416,187 early voters, and when we project them in, the Democratic edge grows to D +111,906.
The Final Box Score
- Early voters in the series: 1,063,921 (1,036,372 in person, 27,549 mail ballots scored)
- Democrats: 274,323
- Republicans: 247,616
- Independents and swing: 416,187
- Not in our file or no score: 125,795
- Delta: D +26,707 (in person D +20,431, mail D +6,276)
Only the 27,549 mail ballots received through October 20 are scored here. The Clerk has accepted 44,661 in all, so about 17,000 mail ballots are on the roster but not in these party numbers.
Three Acts: How Early Voting Moved
The twelve days played out in three parts.
- Week one, Monday through Friday (days 1-5): 479,419 voted in person, and Democrats won the stretch D +17,352. Almost all of it came on opening day, D +10,380. By Thursday, October 22, the day was even, R +47.
- The weekend (days 6-7): 108,107 voted, D +5,797. Saturday went D +4,245 and Sunday D +1,552.
- Week two (days 8-12): 448,846 voted, R +2,718. Republicans won Monday through Thursday, peaking at R +1,552 on Tuesday, before Friday’s record crowd of 126,397 flipped the last day back to D +188.
In-person turnout by day: 104,659, 99,910, 93,414, 86,328, 95,108, 67,242, 40,865, 79,474, 75,247, 78,747, 88,981, 126,397.
The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): 206,453 early voters, D +5,167 among scored voters. This was the closest race we tracked. Democrats built a lead in week one and on the weekend, then the precinct ran within 180 votes either way every day of week two: R +28, R +28, D +144, D +33, D +180. With independents projected in, Precinct 2 stands at D +17,687 by precinct and D +23,668 under the model.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): 238,513 early voters, D +993 among scored voters, essentially even. Republicans won Precinct 4 on seven of the twelve days, including every day of week two, but did not erase the opening-day lead. With independents, D +8,988 by precinct and D +17,528 under the model.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: 86,908 early voters, R +13,229, and R +16,019 under the model. Republicans won the Harris portion of SD-4 every day.
Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters decide the countywide races, including County Judge: Precinct 1 D +70,357, Precinct 3 R +49,828.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
63,191 HD-127 voters cast early ballots, in person and by mail: Republicans 21,548, Democrats 12,770, independents and swing 23,630. That is R +8,778 among scored voters. Incumbent Charles Cunningham’s side won every one of the twelve days, from R +135 on Sunday to R +988 on the first Wednesday, and Friday’s R +959 was the third biggest. HD-127 independents split close to even, 48 percent Democratic under the model, so projecting them in moves the district to R +9,562. For comparison, HD-126 finished R +7,894 and HD-128 R +9,884.
Kingwood vs. Humble: Kingwood finished R +7,517 (20,889 voters) and Humble, including Atascocita, D +2,516 (44,184 voters). Humble turned out about twice as many voters and leaned Democratic, while Kingwood ran heavily Republican.
Where Will Independents Go?
Independents and swing voters are the biggest bloc in the Harris County early vote, 416,187 voters, 39 percent of everyone in the series. We split them three ways:
- Even split: the margin stays D +26,707.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct, which gives D +80,676.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 369,584 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. That gives D +111,906, with independents breaking 250,693 Democratic to 165,494 Republican (60 percent).
Under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 D +23,668, Precinct 4 D +17,528, SD-4 (Harris portion) R +16,019, HD-127 R +9,562, Kingwood R +10,506, Humble D +7,915.
The full headcount. Put every scored early voter in one column or the other, independents included, and Harris County comes out 525,016 Democratic to 413,110 Republican, D +111,906 on 1,063,921 voters. The 125,795 voters not in our file or without a score are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch on Election Day
- Week two of early voting leaned Republican on four of five days. Does the Election Day crowd look like that week, or like the first?
- Commissioner Precinct 4 finished early voting nearly even and Precinct 2 about 5,000 votes apart among scored voters. Election Day decides both.
- Do independents break Democratic on Election Day the way the model says they did in early voting?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How many people voted early in Harris County in 2026?
1,036,372 voters cast ballots in person over the twelve days of early voting, October 19-30, and the Harris County Clerk’s roster shows 44,661 mail ballots accepted through October 30.
Who is ahead in the Harris County early vote?
Among voters with a party score, Democrats lead by 26,707. With independents projected in by our model, the Democratic edge is 111,906. These are projections from party scores, not vote counts.
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why are not all mail ballots included?
Only mail ballots received through October 20 have been scored against the voter file. Later mail ballots are on the Clerk roster but are not yet in the party numbers.
When is Election Day?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting ended Friday, October 30.
Related reading on Talking Purple
- Game 12: Harris County early voting day twelve
- Game 11: Harris County early voting day eleven
- Game 10: Harris County early voting day ten
- Game 9: Harris County early voting day nine
- Game 8: Harris County early voting day eight
- Game 7: Harris County early voting day seven
- Game 6: Harris County early voting day six
- Game 5: Harris County early voting day five
- Game 4: Harris County early voting day four
- Game 3: Harris County early voting day three
- Game 2: Harris County early voting day two
- Game 1: Harris County early voting day one
- Harris County voter data
- Political text messaging in Harris County
- Political voter outreach services
