Wednesday stayed Republican for a third straight day, but the margin narrowed sharply.
Harris County had 78,747 voters cast ballots in person on Wednesday, October 28, the tenth day of early voting. Republicans out-voted Democrats among scored voters by 397, down from 1,552 on Tuesday. Counting the mail ballots scored so far, 848,543 Harris County voters are in the series through ten days, with two more days of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 10 Box Score
Using our voter-file party scores, day ten broke down like this:
- Democrats: 16,153
- Republicans: 16,550
- Delta: R +397
The in-person line now reads D +10,380, D +4,334, D +1,966, R +47, D +719, D +4,245, D +1,552, R +655, R +1,552, R +397. Wednesday is the fourth Republican day of the series and the third in a row, but at R +397 it is the narrowest of the three, well inside Tuesday’s R +1,552. Independents were again the biggest group: 35,183 day-ten voters carry no party lean in our file, 45 percent of everyone who showed up. Another 10,861 are not in our voter file or have no score.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): D +144 on the day.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): R +316 on the day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +852.
Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge: Precinct 1 went D +3,702 and Precinct 3 went R +3,929.
House District 127: Cunningham vs. Williams
In House District 127 (Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita and Huffman), where incumbent Charles Cunningham (R) faces Michelle Williams (D), 4,346 voters cast ballots in person on day ten: Republicans 1,380, Democrats 692, independents and swing 1,851. That is R +688 on the day, compared with HD-126 (R +627) and HD-128 (R +571).
The series in HD-127, days 1-10. 50,944 HD-127 voters so far, in person and by mail: Republicans 18,250, Democrats 11,150, independents and swing 17,679, R +7,100 before independents. Republicans have won every in-person day (R +764, R +880, R +988, R +942, R +964, R +278, R +135, R +745, R +705, R +688); the scored mail vote is a wash at R +11. With independents projected in, HD-127 sits at R +7,367; its independents split 49 percent Democratic, closer to even than the county.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 1,409 voted on day ten, R +514
- Humble (including Atascocita): 3,197 voted, D +3
Same shape as the first week: Kingwood runs Republican among scored voters, Humble leans Democratic, and Humble turns out about twice as many voters. Series to date: Kingwood R +6,319, Humble D +2,399.
The Series So Far: Days 1-10
- Total voters: 848,543 (820,994 in person, 27,549 by mail scored)
- Democrats: 235,570
- Republicans: 208,749
- Delta: D +26,821 (in person D +20,545, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +4,954
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +1,406
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +11,077
- HD-127: R +7,100
- Kingwood: R +6,319
- Humble: D +2,399
In-person turnout by day: 104,659, 99,910, 93,414, 86,328, 95,108, 67,242, 40,865, 79,474, 75,247, 78,747. The Clerk’s mail roster now has 41,681 accepted ballots; only the 27,549 received through October 20 are scored and counted here. Roster counts for earlier days differ from our earlier posts by a handful of voters because the Clerk reconciles its rosters after posting.
Where Will Independents Go?
35,183 day-ten voters are scored as independents or swing voters. We split them three ways:
- Even split: independents divide 50/50, so the countywide margin stays R +397.
- By precinct: each independent follows the Democrat/Republican split of scored voters in their own precinct across all 10 days, which gives D +4,685.
- Model: each independent is predicted from precinct lean, age, sex and how they voted, trained on 294,594 scored Democrats and Republicans in the Talking Purple voter file. Independents missing age or sex are scored on precinct and method. That gives D +8,748, with independents breaking 22,164 Democratic to 13,019 Republican (63 percent).
By race, under the model: Commissioner Precinct 2 D +1,990, Precinct 4 D +1,601, SD-4 (Harris portion) R +910, HD-127 R +623, Kingwood R +707, Humble D +547.
The series with independents, days 1-10. Countywide, even split D +26,821, by precinct D +69,504, model D +94,320. Independents so far break 61 percent Democratic under the model. Commissioner Precinct 2 stands at D +19,704 and Precinct 4 at D +14,551; Republicans hold SD-4 (Harris portion) at R +12,928, HD-127 at R +7,367 and Precinct 3 at R +50,659. Kingwood R +8,483, Humble D +6,692.
The full headcount. Put every scored voter in one column or the other, independents included: day ten comes out 38,317 Democratic to 29,569 Republican, D +8,748 on 78,747 voters. For the whole series, 424,801 Democratic to 330,481 Republican, D +94,320 on 848,543 voters. The 93,261 voters not in our file or without a score are not counted on either side.
These are projections, not vote counts. They assume independents vote like the scored voters of the same age, sex and precinct, which may not hold.
What It Means
Democrats lead the series by D +26,821 among scored voters and by D +94,320 with independents projected in. Wednesday’s R +397 took far less off that lead than Tuesday did, and independents broke about 63 percent Democratic, so the day projects to D +8,748 under the model.
More than 310,000 early voters so far are scored as independents or swing voters, 45 percent of day ten’s turnout. A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 11
- Does Thursday, with two days of early voting left, move back toward Democrats or stay Republican?
- Does Precinct 4 stay narrowly Republican, and does Precinct 2 stay near a dead heat?
- Do independents keep breaking Democratic at about 60 percent?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting roster is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day ten only in-person votes?
Day ten counts the 78,747 voters who voted in person on Wednesday, October 28. Mail ballots accepted since October 20 are not yet scored, so the mail total in the series figures is unchanged.
How are independents projected?
Three ways. An even split leaves the margin unchanged. By precinct gives each independent the Democrat-to-Republican ratio of scored voters in their own precinct. The model predicts each independent from precinct lean, age, sex and vote method, trained on scored partisans in the Talking Purple voter file. All three are projections, not vote counts.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Related reading on Talking Purple
- Game 9: Harris County early voting day nine
- Game 8: Harris County early voting day eight
- Game 7: Harris County early voting day seven
- Game 6: Harris County early voting day six
- Game 5: Harris County early voting day five
- Game 4: Harris County early voting day four
- Game 3: Harris County early voting day three
- Game 2: Harris County early voting day two
- Game 1: Harris County early voting day one
- Day one early voting in Texas: the 10 biggest counties
- Harris County voter data
- Political text messaging in Harris County
- Political voter outreach services
