Three games into the series, and the gap keeps shrinking.
Harris County had 93,414 voters cast ballots in person on Wednesday, October 21, the third day of early voting. After three days, 325,530 Harris County voters have already cast a ballot, with nine more days of early voting plus Election Day still to play.
The Game 3 Box Score
- Democrats: 27,317
- Republicans: 25,351
- Delta: D +1,966
That is the closest day of the series. The Democratic in-person lead went from D +10,380 on day one to D +4,334 on day two to D +1,966 on day three.
Inning by Inning: The Races on the Ballot
Commissioner Precinct 2 (Adrian Garcia-D vs. Richard Vega-R): D +171 on the day.
Commissioner Precinct 4 (Lesley Briones-D vs. Steve Radack-R): D +194 on the day.
Senate District 4 (Brett Ligon-R vs. Ron Angeletti-D), Harris portion: R +1,601.
Both commissioner races were within 200 votes on day three. Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race this year, but their voters still decide the countywide races, including County Judge.
Kingwood vs. Humble
- Kingwood: 1,954 voted, R +773
- Humble (including Atascocita): 4,082 voted, D +227
Who Came to the Plate
- Voters 65 and older: R +4,281, the strongest Republican showing of any age group so far.
- Men: R +2,061.
- Women: D +3,649.
- Voters under 45 still lean Democratic, but most of the youngest voters are scored as independents.
The Series So Far: Days 1-3
- Total voters: 325,530
- Democrats: 110,213
- Republicans: 87,259
- Delta: D +22,954 (in person D +16,678, mail D +6,276)
- Commissioner Pct 2: D +3,703
- Commissioner Pct 4: D +2,914
- SD-4, Harris portion: R +4,558
- Kingwood: R +2,537
- Humble: D +1,385
Where Will Independents Go?
More than 95,000 early voters so far are scored as independents. Countywide, split evenly they leave the margin at D +22,954; split by each precinct’s lean, D +40,253; and by our model, which uses precinct, age, sex and vote method, D +51,013. Under every method, Republicans keep their lead in SD-4 and Commissioner Precinct 3.
These are projections, not vote counts.
What It Means
Democrats still lead the series, mostly because of the early mail vote and a big day one. But each in-person day has been closer than the last, and day three was nearly even. Older voters and men are breaking toward Republicans, and the two commissioner races on the ballot were within a couple hundred votes on the day.
A party score shows who showed up based on voting history, not how anyone voted.
What to Watch in Game 4
- Does the in-person margin flip to Republicans?
- Do the Precinct 2 and 4 commissioner races stay this close?
- Does daily turnout keep sliding below 93,000?
All figures are unofficial, from Harris County Clerk early voting and mail ballot rosters. Party figures come from Talking Purple voter-file party scores matched by voter ID.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
Frequently asked questions
How are Democrats and Republicans counted?
Each voter on the Harris County Clerk early voting and mail rosters is matched by voter ID to a voter-file party score: hard or soft Democrat, hard or soft Republican, independent or swing. It reflects voting history, not how anyone voted.
Why is day three only in-person votes?
Harris County had not yet added mail ballots received on October 21 to its mail roster when these numbers were run, so day three counts in-person voters only.
Which Harris County races are these numbers about?
County Judge countywide, Commissioner Precincts 2 and 4, and the Harris County portion of Senate District 4. Precincts 1 and 3 have no commissioner race in 2026.
When does early voting end?
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
