Last night I laid out why I believe Texas needs to verify the eligibility of every new voter before the 2026 election is certified. You can read that piece here: Something Doesn’t Add Up in Texas. This morning I went back to the voter rolls with a new set of questions, and the answers make the case even more pressing.
The question I kept hearing was simple: isn’t this just what happens every election? New voters show up, and new voters are more Hispanic, and Hispanic voters vote Democratic. So I checked. It is not what happens every election. In fact, two years ago it went the other way.
2024: A Big Wave of New Voters, and They Leaned Republican
In 2024, Harris County had 326,041 voters who had not voted here in 2020 or 2022. That is more new voters than this year, which is normal for a presidential election. About 92,900 of them, 28.5 percent, had Spanish surnames.
But here is the part nobody is talking about. Among those 2024 new voters who also voted in the March primary, only 45.6 percent chose the Democratic ballot. Among new Hispanic voters, it was 44.1 percent. They leaned Republican. And the neighborhoods with the most new voters moved toward Trump, not away from him.
Then look at 2022, the last midterm. Inflation was the worst in 40 years, gas hit $5 a gallon, and property taxes and crime were on everybody’s mind. Sound familiar? It was every bit the kitchen-table election 2026 was. Harris County had about 139,000 new voters, and they split almost exactly even: 49.6 percent chose the Democratic primary. Lina Hidalgo won County Judge by about 18,000 votes.
Then came 2026. Among new voters who voted in the primary, 84.6 percent chose Democrats. Among new Hispanic voters, 93 percent. Same county, same kinds of issues, and in two years the new voters went from leaning Republican to breaking better than four to one Democratic.
What Happened to the 2024 Newcomers?
I also wanted to know whether this year’s surge was simply the 2024 newcomers coming back. About half of them did: 164,082 of the 326,041 voted again in 2026, roughly 47,500 of them with Spanish surnames. The other half, 161,959, stayed home.
So 2026’s electorate was built from two pools: about 164,000 returning 2024 newcomers, and another 188,000 brand-new voters who had never cast a Harris County ballot in a general election since at least 2020. Together, that is about 352,000 voters with no Harris County general election history before 2024, and roughly 117,500 of them carry Spanish surnames.
Precinct by Precinct, the Flip Is Everywhere
Break it down by commissioner precinct and the pattern holds in every corner of the county. In 2024, new voters leaned Republican in three of the four commissioner precincts. In Precinct 3, the most Republican part of the county, only 32 percent of new primary voters chose Democrats. In 2026, new voters in all four precincts went between 77 and 92 percent Democratic, and new Hispanic voters went between 89 and 96 percent.
Precinct 2 tells the story best. Its 2024 new voters were nearly half Hispanic and leaned Republican, and Donald Trump carried the precinct. Its 2026 new voters were about 61 percent Hispanic and 87 percent Democratic, and James Talarico won it by 35 points. He even carried Precinct 3, a part of the county Trump won comfortably two years ago.
It Is Not Just Harris County
Using the Secretary of State’s 2025 and 2026 voter rosters, I estimated new voters in the largest Texas counties with Democratic district attorneys. Harris is an exact count. The rest are estimates, but the picture is consistent: roughly 600,000 to 650,000 new voters across eight big counties, about 40 percent of them with Spanish surnames. Bexar, El Paso and Hidalgo have the most Hispanic new electorates, and Harris has the most new Hispanic voters by raw number.
Why This Matters Before Certification
The usual explanation for 2026 is that Hispanic voters always lean Democratic and new voters always skew young. The 2024 numbers say otherwise. Two years ago, the same kind of voters, in the same neighborhoods, leaned Republican. Something changed, and it changed fast.
I am not alleging fraud. I am saying that an electorate that reverses direction this sharply, in a state that does not require proof of citizenship to register, deserves a hard look before the results are locked in. That is why I am asking again: before this election is certified, Texas should verify the eligibility of every new voter. If everyone checks out, we will all have confidence in the result. If they do not, we will know where the loophole is.
Data: Harris County Clerk voter rosters and precinct results, 2020 to 2026; Texas Secretary of State early voting and primary rosters. Party leans are based on which primary new voters chose, not their November ballots. Hispanic figures are estimates based on Census surname data and do not indicate citizenship. Results outside Harris County are estimates. 2026 results are unofficial.
Talking Purple | 832-387-2129 | beth@talkingpurple.com
